The latest edition of the Donau Soja Non-GM Soya Market Report reviews the 2026 European crop outlook, non-GM price developments and the factors affecting supply from Ukraine and the wider global market.
Donau Soja has revised its forecast for the 2026 EU-27 soybean crop downwards. The soya area is now estimated at 1.04 million hectares, 2.7% below the 2025 level, while expected output has been reduced to 2.77 million tonnes, 6.8% below last year. Heatwaves and limited rainfall have weakened yield prospects in parts of western and central Europe. The EU’s July Joint Research Centre Monitoring Agricultural ResourceS (JRC MARS) bulletin forecasts an average soybean yield of 2.62 tonnes per hectare – 5% below its June forecast and 2% below the five-year average.
The outlook varies across Europe. Hungary, Slovakia, Czechia and France face the strongest yield reductions compared with the five-year average, while conditions in Italy and Croatia remain more favourable.
Ukraine’s national yield outlook remains positive, at 2.69 tonnes per hectare – around 9% above the five-year average. However, western regions continue to face soil moisture deficits and are particularly important for non-GM soybean exports to the EU. In Serbia, Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, rainfall in the first half of July improved crop conditions, and above-average yields are currently expected. August will remain critical for final yield formation.
Non-GM soybean prices reached their highest level in around two years.
The report also highlights growing logistics risks. Attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure have increased uncertainty around Black Sea exports, while underperforming rail links and historically low water levels on the Danube are creating additional transport bottlenecks. Market participants will therefore need to follow weather conditions, Ukrainian export routes, transport capacity and global price developments closely in the weeks ahead.
Get the full report: https://www.donausoja.org/news/market-report/
Forecasts and estimates may change as weather, crop and market conditions develop.
Webinar: soybean harvest in Europe for 2026
Join us on 28 October 2026 from 14:00 to 15:00 for a webinar on the 2026 soya harvest across the Donau Soja region. Our teams in Ukraine and Serbia will share first-hand insights on harvest volumes, quality, production developments and what the situation means for European soya supply.
Register for the webinar here: https://forms.cloud.microsoft/e/4dQgk0Mj9t