The sixth edition of the Non-GMO Market Report, jointly published by Donau Soja, ENGA, and the ProTerra Foundation, presents a cautiously optimistic forecast for Europe’s non-GMO crop sector in 2025. While improved yields in soya, maize, and rapeseed signal positive developments, ongoing trade tensions and supply chain disruptions introduce significant market uncertainties.
Soybean production: Yield improvements counteract reduced acreage
European soybean cultivation, exclusively non-GM, is projected to experience a 5–10% reduction in planted area due to previous season’s suboptimal harvests. However, enhanced yield expectations may offset this decline, potentially stabilizing or even increasing total output. Donau Soja anticipates a 1.5% rise in EU non-GM soybean production, reaching approximately 2.89 million tonnes.
Supply chain adjustments: Reduced Brazilian imports and Ukrainian opportunities
Brazilian exports of non-GM soya to Europe are expected to fall below 1.0 million tonnes in 2025, marking a 30–35% decrease from the previous year. This shortfall underscores the need for diversification, with Ukrainian imports poised to play a more significant role in meeting European demand.
Maize and rapeseed: Yield gains amidst stable pricing
EU non-GM maize production is forecasted to increase by 9.5%, totalling 65.0 million tonnes, with prices remaining stable around EUR 213 per tonne. Similarly, non-GM rapeseed output is projected to rise by 12% to 19.0 million tonnes, driven by a 3.8% expansion in cultivated area. Despite current tight supplies, these developments suggest a more balanced market ahead.
Strategic outlook: Navigating uncertainties with resilience
The interplay of favourable agronomic conditions and geopolitical challenges necessitates strategic planning within the non-GMO sector. Stakeholders are encouraged to monitor market signals closely and adapt sourcing strategies to maintain supply chain integrity and meet sustainability commitments.
For comprehensive insights and detailed analyses, access the full Non-GM Multicrop Report here: https://www.donausoja.org/non-gm-multicrop-report/